5-County Region Real Estate Market Analysis: October & November 2025

by: Amanda Theodoran

In a market like ours—where values are still rising (+3.7% YTD) even as activity cools (-8.8% fewer sales and homes taking longer to sell)—a successful transaction takes strategy, not luck. Add in county-to-county differences (Leelanau surging while other areas slow) and price-point “micro-markets” where some segments move fast and others sit, and it’s clear why expert guidance matters.

For sellers, November shows the payoff for precision: homes that sell are still averaging 96.31% of list price, but the risk of missing the mark is real, with 30.88% expiring. For buyers, navigating these shifting pockets of competition and leverage is where an experienced agent protects your terms, your timeline, and your negotiating position.

Regional Market Overview: Year-to-Date Performance vs. 2024

To accurately gauge the health and trajectory of the 5-county real estate market, a direct comparison of year-to-date (YTD) metrics against the prior year's performance is essential. This high-level analysis establishes a crucial baseline, revealing overarching trends in pricing, sales volume, and market velocity. These regional indicators provide the context necessary before delving into the more granular dynamics at the county and price-segment levels.

The aggregate data for the region through October 2025 paints a picture of a market in transition, characterized by appreciating values but moderating activity.

The key takeaway from this regional overview is the presence of seemingly contradictory trends. While the number of homes sold has decreased and the time they take to sell has lengthened, the average sales price has continued to climb. This dynamic suggests that despite a slower pace, buyer demand remains strong enough—particularly for certain types of properties—to support price appreciation. It may also indicate a shift in the composition of sales toward higher-priced homes.

This complex regional picture invites a closer look at the local markets that constitute the whole.

Comparative County Analysis: Uncovering Local Market Variations

Regional averages, while useful, can often mask significant performance variations between local markets. The 5-county region is not a monolith; each county possesses distinct characteristics that shape its real estate landscape. This section dissects the year-to-date performance of Grand Traverse, Leelanau, Benzie, Antrim, and Kalkaska counties to identify leadership trends and divergent market dynamics as of October 2025.

The following table breaks down key performance indicators for each county, comparing YTD 2025 against the full year of 2024.

This county-level data reveals a highly varied marketplace. Leelanau County stands out as a top performer, registering a robust 9.4% increase in average sales price while also seeing properties sell faster, with Days on Market decreasing by six days. In sharp contrast, Kalkaska County demonstrates the most dramatic price appreciation, with an extraordinary 22.5% jump in average price. This divergence highlights a bifurcated market, with strong performance driven by high-end luxury demand in Leelanau and by entry-level, affordability-driven demand in Kalkaska, while the middle ground remains more subdued.

Meanwhile, the region's largest market, Grand Traverse County, and neighboring Benzie County are experiencing minor price corrections and a noticeable slowdown in market pace, with DOM increasing in both. Antrim County follows the regional trend of price growth but exhibits the most significant increase in time on market, jumping by 17 days.

Having explored the geographic differences, the analysis now shifts to how housing inventory is distributed across different price points.

Inventory and Absorption Rate Analysis by Price Segment (October 2025)

A critical indicator of supply and demand balance is the "Months of Inventory," also known as the absorption rate. This metric calculates how long it would take to sell all currently active listings at the recent pace of sales. Generally, less than four months of inventory signals a seller's market, while more than six months suggests a buyer's market. This analysis of the 5-county region's inventory by price reveals which segments are most and least competitive.

As of October 2025, the market shows a clear bifurcation, with intense competition in specific price points and significantly more supply at the extremes.

• High-Velocity Segments (Seller's Market Indicators):
  • Inventory levels of just 2 to 3 months, indicating strong seller's market conditions, are found in distinct pockets rather than a continuous band. These high-demand segments include: 100k-120k, 200k-220k, 240k-280k, 300k-320k, 360k-380k, and 550k-600k. Homes in these price points are being sold almost as quickly as they are listed.
• Low-Velocity Segments (Buyer's Market Indicators):
  • Inventory levels of 7 months or more are present at both the lowest and highest ends of the market. The segments from $20,000 to 80,000** show surplus inventory, as do the luxury tiers from **700,000 to 800,000** and properties priced at **1,000,000+. This suggests a surplus of listings relative to demand, including an unusual pocket of slow-moving homes in the otherwise competitive 180k-200k bracket, potentially providing buyers with more selection and negotiating leverage.

This data highlights a market with specific, highly competitive price points rather than a uniformly tight middle market. Both buyers and sellers face vastly different conditions depending on which precise segment they are targeting. This imbalance shapes the opportunities and challenges for different market participants across the region.

To complement this October analysis, we now turn to the most recent data available from November.

November 2025 Market Snapshot: A Real-Time Perspective

This section provides the most current view of market conditions, utilizing partial data for Single Family (SF) homes from November 1-21, 2025. These near-real-time metrics, including the sale-to-list price ratio and expired listing rates, offer timely insights into buyer sentiment, pricing accuracy, and negotiation dynamics.

Active Listings (as of Nov 21): 986 Average List Price (Active): $811,924 Median List Price (Active): $525,000 Average DOM (Active): 106 days Total Sold Listings (Nov 1-21): 138 Median Sale Price (Sold): $396,750 Average Sale Price/List Price Ratio: 96.31% Expired Listings: 42 (representing 30.88% of homes listed in the period)

The November figures reveal several important dynamics. An average sale-to-list price ratio of 96.31% is a strong indicator of market health, signifying that properties that do sell are achieving prices very close to their final asking price. This suggests that widespread, aggressive price reductions are not the norm and that demand for well-priced homes remains resilient.

The significant gap between the average list price of active homes (811,924) and the median sale price of sold homes (396,750) confirms the findings from the absorption rate analysis. The market's available inventory is heavily weighted toward higher-priced properties, while the bulk of successful transactions occurs at more moderate, mid-range price points.

Perhaps most telling is the expired listing rate. This figure indicates that nearly one-third of homes removed from the market in this period failed to sell. This high rate suggests not only buyer selectivity but also a segment of sellers who have not yet adjusted their pricing expectations to the market's moderated pace. It is a clear signal that while buyers are willing to pay fair market value, they are rejecting properties they perceive as overpriced or not meeting their standards for condition.

This snapshot leads directly to a final synthesis of the market's overall condition.

Conclusion: Synthesizing Key Market Dynamics

This analysis of the 5-county real estate market through October and November 2025 reveals a complex and multi-faceted environment. The data points to a market that is moderating from its previous pace but remains fundamentally sound, supported by appreciating values in key segments. However, this stability is not uniform, with significant variations present across counties and price points, demanding a nuanced understanding from market participants.

The overarching market narrative is defined by several key tensions and trends:

• Price Appreciation Amidst Slowing Volume: The primary regional trend is one of rising average sale prices, which have increased by 3.7% year-over-year. This occurs even as the total number of transactions has declined and properties are taking longer to sell, signaling a mature market where value holds firm despite a slower pace.
• County-Level Divergence: The region is not a single market but a collection of distinct local economies. High-end demand drives strong price growth and faster sales in Leelanau County, while Kalkaska County leads in percentage-based price appreciation. In contrast, larger markets like Grand Traverse are experiencing slight price corrections and a more pronounced slowdown.
• Inventory Imbalances: The market is highly segmented by price, creating distinct micro-markets. Intense competition exists within specific, in-demand price points, driven by tight inventory. Conversely, softer, buyer's market conditions prevail at the very low and high ends of the market, where supply exceeds current demand.
• Current Market Conditions: The most recent data from November confirms that buyer demand is resilient for properties that are priced correctly and in good condition, as evidenced by a strong 96.3% sale-to-list price ratio. However, a high expired listing rate serves as a crucial reminder that the market is selective and will not absorb overpriced inventory. Strategic pricing and property presentation remain critical for success.